IRR-Tampa Mid-Year Viewpoint 2015 Local Market Report - Retail
The Tampa retail market has been slowly recovering from the great recession. The housing bubble in Tampa Bay resulted in numerous retail projects that were being developed in peripheral areas being left ‘high and dry’ when the housing market cratered. Consequently, high retail vacancy rates were experienced in most outlying submarkets over the past six years. While the market also lost a lot of big box retail as did the rest of the country, Regional Malls and most grocery anchored neighborhood centers retained most of their tenants, though often with rent concessions.
Much of the rebound in the retail sector can be attributed to Tampa Bay’s above average population and job growth; specifically the in migration of young professionals and well-educated retirees moving to Tampa Bay from other areas of the Country. Population growth, and improving employment, combined with sharply diminished new retail development over the past few years, has resulted in Community Retail occupancy to be within the range of the national average, albeit at lower than average rental rates.
Neighborhood retail rent growth in the suburbs is primarily being driven by grocery anchored centers, specifically Publix, which acquired several Albertson’s stores in the Tampa Bay area and repositioned them over the last few years. Family Dollar and Dollar General freestanding stores have also been developed in lower income neighborhoods throughout Florida, a national trend. Also notable is the continued transformation of the Westshore office district with new restaurants and retail stores, as well as some areas of New Tampa and South Tampa. These trendy areas are seeing the lowest vacancy levels and commanding some of the highest retail rents in Tampa Bay. This is due in large part to the substantial amount of new multi-family housing that has recently come on line in these areas.
Currently the overall market vacancy is continuing to tighten, primarily in the Westshore submarket. Moreover, various construction projects and renovations to existing retail properties can be observed throughout the metro area. Downward pressure is expected to continue on vacancy rates, which is expected to generate upward rental rate movement as supply tightens. Locations with favorable demographics and competent management are expected to share in these favorable trends.
Download the full version PDF of this Local Market Report below. It includes graphs and tables.
IRR Mid-Year Viewpoint 2015 comprises a National Overview report and 300+ two-page Local Market Reports for all key property types as well as additional resources, including metrics methodology, graphs, and tables; these free reports may be downloaded from IRR’s site here.