Strong GDP Rings in the New Year
In this Issue
Last Week in Review: The U.S. economy had a strong third quarter, while recent housing reports show signs of slowing in that sector.
Forecast for the Week: On Friday, the Jobs Report for December could be a market mover.
View: If you received new electronics over the holidays, see the tips below for selling, recycling or donating your old gadgets.
Last Week in Review
"It's a new dawn, it's a new day...and I'm feeling good." Nina Simone. The new year is here, and with home loan rates still near historic lows, 2015 rang in with plenty for consumers to feel good about. Here are some other highlights from the end of 2014.
The final reading for Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter of 2014 came in at a blistering 5.0 percent, the fastest pace of economic growth since the third quarter of 2003. The big gains were led by a surge in both consumer and business spending. GDP is considered the broadest measure of economic activity, so this is a strong sign for our economy heading into the new year.
In housing news, the October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index came in at an annual rate of 4.5 percent, down from the 4.8 percent recorded in September. The October reading was the eleventh straight month of decelerating price gains. It was also the smallest annual gain since October 2012, as price gains return to more normal levels. Also of note, sales of new and existing homes fell in November as well. The housing market continues to remain in a somewhat choppy trend, despite an improving economy and job market.
As we look ahead into 2015, the uncertainty in Europe will continue to rear its head over time. The European Union (EU) is fighting deflation, recessionary pressures, a Greece exit from the EU, and limited political capital required for the necessary fixes. This could lead to safe haven trading in our bond market, helping Mortgage Bonds and home loan rates (which are tied to Mortgage Bonds) in the process.
The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near historic lows, and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week
The labor sector will be front and center, with Friday's Jobs Report for December the highlight.
- Look for the ISM Services Index on Tuesday.
- The first report from the jobs sector comes Wednesday with the ADP Employment Report.
- As usual, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be delivered on Thursday.
- Friday brings the December Jobs Report, which includes Non-farm Payrolls and the Unemployment Rate.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.