Last Week in Review: Home loan rates remain near 18-month lows, while housing reports showed mixed news for the sector.
Forecast for the Week: Look for key reports on housing, consumer attitudes, U.S. economic growth, inflation and more. Plus, a big Fed meeting is ahead.
Last Week in Review:
It's been said that "opportunity comes knocking." And that's certainly the case for people looking to purchase or refinance a home, as home loan rates remain near 18-month lows.
In recent weeks, investors have moved into the safe haven of the bond markets for several reasons, including weak economic data here at home, concerns about Ebola, and economic and geopolitical uncertainty overseas. This has helped mortgage bonds reach 18-month highs, and since home loan rates are tied to mortgage bonds, rates have reached 18-month lows.
In addition, stocks have been volatile due to the upcoming end of the Fed's bond-buying program. The Fed has been slowly tapering its purchases throughout the year, and every indication is that the Fed will completely end the program at its meeting on October 28 to 29. The key takeaway is that stocks performed terribly after the first and second rounds of the Fed's bond-buying program ended. If stocks worsen, mortgage bonds and home loan rates could continue to improve.
In other news, key housing reports showed mixed results for the sector. September existing home sales reached its highest pace of the year, showing gains in all major regions except for the Midwest. September new home sales also reached a six-year high. However, new home sales for August, which were originally reported at 504,000, were revised to 466,000. Sales in July and June were also revised lower.
The bottom line is that home loan rates remain near some of their best levels of the year, and now is a great time to consider a home purchase or refinance. Let me know if I can answer any questions at all for you or your clients.
Forecast for the Week:
A packed economic calendar is in store this week. Plus, the Fed meeting could cause volatility in the markets.
- Housing news kicks off the week with Pending Home Sales on Monday, followed by the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index on Tuesday.
- Durable Goods Orders will also be released on Tuesday.
- We'll get a read on how consumers are feeling with Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and the Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.
- Thursday'sreports feature Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and the first reading on Q3 Gross Domestic Product.
- Friday brings Personal Income, Personal Spending, Personal Consumption Expenditures (inflation index), the Employment Cost Index, and Chicago PMI (a regional manufacturing report).
In addition, the Fed's next two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee begins Tuesday, with the Monetary Policy Statement being released on Wednesday. Investors will be watching closely to see if the Fed fully tapers its ongoing bond-buying program. This announcement has the potential to create volatility in the markets.
Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of stocks and into bonds, helping bonds and home loan rates improve, while strong economic news normally has the opposite result.
When you see these bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving—and when they are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.
By: Michael Borodinsky
Vice President/Regional Builder Branch Manager | Caliber Home Loans
Call Michael: 732-382-2654
Email Michael: email@example.com
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