I would like to share with you my analysis of Coral Gables luxury residential real estate submarkets, for one of Miami’s premier residential areas. Despite the proliferation of data that is accessible to all of us, I find there to be a lack of information for those interested in what is happening in these neighborhoods. As such please read while I go through some key points of real estate data for Coral Gables and as of year-end 2014.
Overall the average days on market has remained very steady over the last three years, with the typical house selling in 197 days. There were 9 houses that sold in less than 10 days, and there were 9 houses that sold after more than one year on the market. Two of the top 15 highest-priced sales sold in less than 100 days, but 7 of them took over 300 days to sell.
2014 witnessed 15 sales at or above $5,000,000, with two sales in excess of $10,000,000. By comparison, 11 houses sold at or above this level in 2013, with one sale in excess of $10,000,000. Thus, the average price point in 2014 was pushed higher to $4,002,072, a 26% increase over the 2013 average sale price of $3,171,636.
The average sale price per square foot currently ranges from a low of about $300 (land value or major rehab) to $2,600 (Gables Estates, large lot, updated condition). The average sale price has risen by 48% since 2011 and a whopping 31% in the last year alone. This was driven by some very premium sales at record prices.
In the ultra-luxury market, prices tend to be more negotiable than the rest of the market. Unique properties either appeal greatly or don’t at all in some cases, to the buyer pool. 2013 and 2014 witnessed a 9% negotiation off of the list price. Of the top 10 sales by price, five had at least a 15% negotiation off of the list price. In the lower price points, only one of the 10 lowest sales saw a negotiation of more than 10% off of the list price.
The number of sales in 2014 was lower than in 2012 and 2013. However, the average and median prices were much higher so naturally there may be slightly less buyers willing to step into a market that has appreciated so much so quickly. However, we are well above the 38 sales in 2008, 41 sales in 2009, 46 sales in 2010 and 48 sales in 2011. This is even more impressive when one considers the much higher price points in 2014 than in previous years.
Roughly 58% of all waterfront sales in 2014 were above $3 MM, with 2 sales topping $10 MM. Only 3 properties sold at less than $1.5 MM. There were 7 houses that sold above $1,000/Sq. Ft., with all of those houses also selling above $5 MM. The negotiation factor off the list price and the number of days to sell was also greatest for the most expensive properties.
Market Overview – Coral Gables – Non-Waterfront
Average Days on Market
The average number of days a non-waterfront house was on the market in Coral Gables has steadily declined since the Great Recession peak of 181 days in 2009. There were 15 properties that went under contract in 10 days or less in 2014, while 6 houses languished on the market for over one year. The house that took longest to sell (833 days) sold very close to its list price with only a 4% negotiation off the list price.
The average sale price in 2014 was $1,578,469, up from $1,475,294 in 2013 and $1,229,651 in 2012. 2011 had a higher average than 2012, but that’s due primarily to some larger than normal houses that sold in 2011. Average sale prices/square foot range generally between $200/Sq. Ft. (needs major improvement/rehab) to $550/Sq. Ft. (updated house in gated community, generally with larger than average land size). Since 2011, the average sale price per square foot has risen by approximately 25%. There were 11 houses that sold above $500/square foot in 2014.
The average negotiation off of the list price in 2014 was 7%, one point lower than in 2013. The last two years have seen slightly less negotiation than we saw in the previous two-year period. Total number of sales and days on market have remained constant over the last two years, but we are seeing slightly increasing inventory of houses on the market, which should temper price appreciation and potentially increase the negotiation factor in 2015 should that continue.
The number of homes sales has remained relatively even over the last three years. There were 72 sales in 2008, 76 sales in 2009 and 90 sales in 2010. The 149 sales in 2011 still represents the highest total in the last 7 years. However, the last three-year total is still significantly higher than what we witnessed in 2008 – 2010. The bulk of sales in 2014 fall within the $1,000,000 - $1,500,000 price point with an average size of 3,011 square feet. However, there were 34 sales between $1,500,001 - $2,000,000 at an average size of 3,332 square feet. The larger and more expensive houses do take slightly longer to sell.
By: Ben Moss
Estate Agent | ONE Sotheby's International Realty
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